Browsing by Author "An, Nazan."

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    Agricultural decision-making in Turkey from climate change perspective :|a new road map for the period of 2021-2050
    (Thesis (Ph.D.) - Bogazici University. Institute of Environmental Sciences, 2020., 2020.) An, Nazan.; Yenigün, Orhan.; Kurnaz, M. Levent.
    The expectation that it can affect basic life resources and particularly food security on a global, regional, and local scale with its impact on the ecosystem has made climate change one of the most urgent issues on the global agenda. Extreme weather events due to climate change may degrade food quality, affect access to food and raise food prices, markedly affecting agricultural productivity. Many countries have already been faced the global impacts of climate change, therefore studies on the effects that may occur on ecosystems are of great importance. As one of the regions that may be most affected by climate change, the Mediterranean Basin is at risk in terms of agricultural production due to temperature increases and precipitation regime changes, and what’s more the increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events due to climate change. As a country located in the Mediterranean Basin, Turkey may also suffer from climate change. This situation poses a risk in terms of crop production value and export income, particularly for products with high commercial value grown in Turkey. Therefore, the study has focused two crops of the country i.e., hazelnut and grape with the high commercial value. In the first stage, the climate data for different phenological periods and different variables for each crop was obtained from the regional climate model, RegCM4.4 with the MPI-ESM-MR global climate model under the RCP8.5 pessimistic scenario for the baseline of 1991-2012 and the future period of 2021-2050. In the second stage, the change in hazelnut yield was analyzed by statistical approach, panel data method, and the change in grape yield was analyzed using the crop growth simulation model, STICS. At the last stage, how the climate conditions of hazelnut (88 locations) and grapes (96 locations) will change in the future has been examined by using membership function. However, considering the crop production values of these two crops and export revenue contribution to the national economy, the possibility of new locations where these crops may grow in the future has been analyzed in 923 locations throughout Turkey. Accordingly, at this stage of the thesis, climate suitability index was calculated for hazelnut and grape, and climatic suitability conditions were determined according to 5 classification ranges. In brief, it has been observed that climate change may have a negative impact on both hazelnut and grape yields in the future and it is predicted that there may be significant reductions in climatic suitability conditions in the locations where these two crops grow.
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    Climate change impacts on migration in the vulnerable countries
    (Thesis (M.S.) - Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in Science and Engineering, 2013., 2013.) An, Nazan.; Kurnaz, M. Levent.
    This research focuses on the economic, demographic and environmental drivers of migration related with the sustainable development in the underdeveloped and developing countries, which are the most vulnerable to the climate change impacts through the panel data analysis. We have studied some countries namely Bangladesh, Netherlands, Morocco, Malaysia, Ethiopia and Bolivia. We have analyzed these countries according to their economic, demographic and environmental indicators related with the determinant of migration, and we tried to indicate that their conditions di er according to all these factors concerning with the climate change impacts. In order to achieve sustainable development by preventing or decreasing environmental migration due to climate change impacts, these countries need to maintain economic, social, political, demographic, and in particular environmental performance. This thesis argues about climate change impacts in the future to the vulnerable countries and its e ects on the migration in these countries. There are some signi cant risks stemming from climate change, which is not under control. When the economic and environmental conditions are considered, we have to regard that climate change will be more destructive for those who are less defendable in terms of all risks and impacts of uncontrolled climate change. In this case, there are some crucial questions required to be responded. What should be the economic and environmental priorities? What are the contributions of these priorities to the vulnerable countries concerning with the climate change e ects? Considering all these, geographic structure and also human population density (how and where population live) of these poor are very signi cant concepts.
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    Future predictions of global hotspots for temperature and precipitation extremes with CMIP6 model
    (Thesis (M.S.) - Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in Science and Engineering, 2023., 2023) Bayındır, Elif.; Kurnaz, M. Levent.; An, Nazan.
    This study used a climate change hotspot technique using population-weighted Standard Euclidean Distance (SED) measurements to assess climate change risks across regions. The analysis shows changes in the world’s climatology for the years 2026-2050 and 2076-2099 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios. In the SSP2-4.5 scenario (2026-2050), equatorial regions like China, Japan, and Indonesia are hotspots that would experience increasing sea levels, extreme weather events, and heat waves because of a changing climate and population density. The Americas, Southern Africa, the Mediterranean, Western Europe, and Asia are considered to be risk zones. Concerns include droughts and unpredictable precipitation, which affect economies and food security. Ecosystems and communities must use customized adaptation strategies to meet these difficulties. Moderate adaption issues are anticipated under SSP2-4.5, necessitating focused measures. Distant future trends (2076-1999) align with near-future tendencies, which calls for further efforts. Similar indicator changes may cause a lack of differences between scenarios in the near future. This study enhances our understanding of hotspots and emphasizes the importance of thorough approaches. Innovations and a variety of situations improve climate resilience and adaptation. Future work should focus on improving assessment techniques, improving used data and models, and including socioeconomic issues for effective climate plans.