Browsing by Author "Saysel, Ali Kerem."

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    A dynamic simulation approach to soil salinity and sodicity in Konya plain of Turkey
    (Thesis (M.S.) - Bogazici University. Institute of Environmental Sciences, 2021., 2021.) Tunca, Mehmet Can.; Saysel, Ali Kerem.
    Soil salinity and sodicity are twin problems potentially affecting soil fertility, farmers’ livelihoods and food security. Management and control of these problems, particularly on irrigated farmlands require knowledge and expertise crafted through appropriate models and experiments. The accumulation of salts on the soil profiles may occur through natural processes as well as by human actions, that are mostly related to poor agricultural and irrigation practices. Accumulation of salt in soil water impedes crop evapotranspiration, sodicity threatens the soil structure and degrades its hydraulic qualities. These problems are more pervasive in arid and semi-arid regions. Therefore, irrigation and agricultural practices are crucial in controlling these problems to avoid their undesired consequences. In this research, a dynamic simulation model is built to represent salinization and sodification in soil layers so as to test the long-term impact of alternative irrigation practices with respect to water quality, quantity and schedule, on soil fertility and farm yields. The model is developed based on the system dynamics methodology. Model parameter values are selected as representative of the field conditions of Konya Plain in Turkey, which is a semi-arid region partially experiencing soil salinization problems. This study is completed as a part of the TÜBİTAK-funded research project entitled, “Soil Salinity and Sodicity Management by Sustainable Irrigation Practices in Konya Plain”. Based on the scenario analyses performed in the research, irrigation water quality, irrigation method as well as crop rotations found to be important factors on soil salinization and sodification process in soil.
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    A dynamic simulation model of carbon circulation and methane feedbacks in anthropogenic climate change
    (Thesis (M.S.)-Bogazici University. Institute of Environmental Sciences, 2010., 2010.) Akpınar, Yeşim Atağ.; Saysel, Ali Kerem.
    The human induced climate change is the most serious and difficult environmental issue to manage that has emerged in the recent decades. The complexity of this problem lies in the fact that if the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue in an uncontrolled manner, its potential damage can be very severe but the costs associated with the mitigation activities are very high. Although the severity of the problem and the need for urgent action are unquestionable today, people usually prefer "wait and see" policies instead of prompt action. One reason of this tendency is inherent difficulties of understanding the dynamics of anthropogenic climate change and anticipating the possible future results of today's actions. Climate change is a good example of a dynamic systems problem. It embodies several delays, feedbacks, nonlinearities and uncertainties in its dynamically complex structure. Therefore, the need for and the usefulness of descriptive and simpler models that explain these dynamic complexities are undisputed. The aim of this study is to construct such a dynamic simulation model. The method used is system dynamics, which is a powerful approach to model and analyze complex dynamic systems to create hypotheses on structure and to predict future behavior. The model integrates several components of the climate system. It includes the carbon cycle, radiative forcing of CO2, CH4, N2O and induced temperature change as well as the temperature feedback affecting terrestrial carbon absorption rates. It also proposes a representation of the permafrost melting and methane feedback process. The model aims at enabling the user to test the effects of these feedbacks, the emission scenarios and parameter uncertainty on greenhouse gas concentrations and average surface temperature change. The simulation length is 240 years from 1860 to 2100. Model structure is validated with indirect structure tests. Historical emissions and temperature change data are used to calibrate the model behavior. Model reference behavior is based on IS92a emission scenario of IPCC. The model can be transformed to an interactive learning environment and be used as a tool to improve the public understanding about dynamics of climate change and to increase awareness. It is also possible to develop it and to transform to a web application that enables the users to test different policy options and observe the results.
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    A social-ecological systems analysis of water supply governance on Samothraki, Greece
    (Thesis (M.S.) - Bogazici University. Institute of Environmental Sciences, 2021., 2021.) Beaucamp, Anna.; Saysel, Ali Kerem.
    The island of Samothraki in the North Aegean Sea features astonishing water resources of pris tine quality and high quantity. Contrary to what the condition of the water resources would suggest, the residents of Samothraki suffer from water shortages and incidents of contamination, as well as unsteady water provision to economic activities. Meanwhile, the natural water resource system starts showing signs of degradation. The situation is associated with inappropriate municipal water man agement within the frame of a collective action problem. The local municipality’s inability to provide sufficient network coverage and quality control is facing resource-intense and hard-to-control surface water abstractions by individuals for agricultural purposes. Without a coherent understanding of the structures, dynamics and interdependencies underlying management decisions, the situation is likely to continue and cause social conflict as well as ecological harm . Through the application of the Social-Ecological Systems Framework (McGinnis and Ostrom 2014), I first map out a wide range of variables connected to water management and analyse them according to their their relevance and interdependence. The results show that water mismanagement on the island is a much more complex issue than suggested until now, with strong symbiotic links between current informal and official, collective, individual and municipal institutions. I thus argue that the water supply on Samothraki is best understood as a complex social-ecological system. In a second step I draw on insights from adaptive and decentralized governance approaches to eval uate the potentials of sustainable resource management inherent in current practices on Samothraki. I find that informal networks currently contribute most to the social-ecological system’s sustainability and resilience, and embody the incubators of new approaches of sustainable governance.
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    A system dynamics approach to strategic groundwater management in Çumra region of Konya closed basin
    (Thesis (M.S.) - Bogazici University. Institute of Environmental Sciences, 2023., 2023) Uygur, İzel.; Saysel, Ali Kerem.; Daloğlu Çetinkaya, İrem.
    Water is an essential input in agriculture; farmers all over the world depend on water availability to boost their production and profit. Lack of available surface water, especially in arid or semi arid regions, render groundwater a vital resource for the continuity of agriculture. Konya Closed Basin is a semi arid watershed located in Central Anatolia, Turkey. It has significant agricultural potential and is referred to as “the granary of the country” by Turkish people. In recent years, Konya Closed Basin has been brought to both local and national agenda, with its water scarcity and groundwater stress. In this research, we adopt a participatory system dynamics approach for exploring the drivers of unsustainable groundwa ter use and to build a shared understanding on future sustainable pathways in Çumra, an administrative district within Konya Closed Basin, Turkey. Following 3 field visits and 3 participatory model building workshops, we built a dynamic simulation model, a nd tested multiple environmental scenarios and policies that have been suggested by the stakeholders, such as inter basin water transfer, crop rotation, crop repricing, well regulation, and groundwater extraction caps. The model simulates the 2004 2044 per iod on annual bases. The model structure and parameter values represent the field conditions in Çumra, and it is initialized based on the 2004 data. Based on the scenario and policy analyses performed in this research, the declining trend in the groundwate r table in Çumra is not irreversible; when certain sets of policies are implemented, groundwater can be sustained while maintaining the desired agricultural production and farmer profits.
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    An integrated land use-hydrological model for the Bartın spring watershed
    (Thesis (Ph.D.)-Bogazici University. Institute of Environmental Sciences, 2009., 2009.) Öztürk, Melih.; Copty, Nadim.; Saysel, Ali Kerem.
    The Bartın spring watershed located in northwestern Turkey supplies the water needs of the Bartın, Amasra and nkumu city centers. Although the water is presently adequate for the spring, autumn and winter seasons, the city centers suffer water scarcity in summer seasons. It is widely recognized that land use changes have a significant impact on the water budget of a watershed. The purpose of this study is to model the land use and hydrological processes within the Bartın spring watershed and simulate the water yield under different future land use scenarios. For this purpose, a coupled land use-hydrodynamics model was developed. The land use dynamic simulation model was built using STELLA dynamic simulation platform while the MIKE SHE computer program was used to simulate the hydrodynamics of the watershed. The link between the two models is through the Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Root Depth (RD) parameters which are generated in the land use model and supplied to the hydrodynamics model. The dynamic land use model represents several forest stand groups and land use categories with their respective acreages and their conversions. The model was structurally validated and analyzed through a series of sensitivity tests. It was calibrated with respect to the historical geographical data and the calibration results are quite satisfactory. The calibration target for the hydrodynamics model was the river discharge at the downstream end of the watershed, while the calibration parameters were the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the deeper soil, the threshold melting temperature values and the RD value. The optimal simulation produced correlation coefficients, R=0.72 and R2=0.52 with a mean error of 0.01 m3/s. Sensitivity analyses of the hydrodynamics model indicate that it is quite sensitive to the land use type; complete agricultural cover would yield 25- 33% higher discharge compared to a completely forested watershed. The hydrodynamics model is also sensitive to the LAI up to a value of 3 and becomes insensitive for higher values. The model however, is not strongly sensitive to hydraulic conductivity of the saturated zone.
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    Building resilience to climate change impacts in the Ikel watershed in the Republic of Moldova : a system dynamics approach
    (Thesis (Ph.D.) - Bogazici University. Institute of Environmental Sciences, 2022., 2022) Ciobanu, Natalia.; Saysel, Ali Kerem.
    Climate change threatens social-ecological systems (SES) across the globe. Developing countries where agriculture is a major income source for both local communities and the national economy are especially affected. In conjunction with their reliance on climatic resources, these countries face the challenge of data scarcity. Assessing and building the resilience of these communities to climate change impacts is equally important and challenging. As the relationship between science, policy, and practice changes, the demand increases on research to engage productively with stakeholders and ensure positive outcomes for all parties. Efforts are increasingly focusing on building the resilience of SES to climate impacts. In this research, I design, build and implement a client-based process under data scarcity conditions in a network governance setting within Republic of Moldova. The process includes analyzing a complex socio-ecological problem to identify policies helpful in meeting development objectives: improving crop yields, preserving groundwater resources and securing habitats for biodiversity conservation. To this end, I first develop a computer simulation model – Ikel CliRes – using a participatory approach that combines several methods, techniques and tools from two related fields: system dynamics and resilience of socio ecological systems. I then use Ikel CliRes to design policy interventions that increase the desirable resilience of Ikel SES to some climate impacts. Ongoing implementation of several policies discussed with decision-makers is underway pointing to the effectiveness and usefulness of the process. Results should be regarded within the limitations of the model architecture and of the assumptions underlying both the model and the analysis.
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    Designing a system based environmental instruction program and evaluating its effects on seventh grade students
    (Thesis (Ph.D.)-Bogazici University. Institute of Environmental Sciences, 2013., 2013.) Doğança, Zerrin.; Saysel, Ali Kerem.
    The present research aimed to test the effects of an environmental instructional design with systems approach on seventh grade students. The main focus was to examine whether systems approach is a more effective way to teach environmental issues that are dynamic and complex. The research was a quasi-experimental study that enabled to compare performances on general systems thinking skills, competence in dynamic environmental problem solving, and success in standard science achievement tests of subjects from different groups. The sample of the study included 42 seventh grade students (12-14 year old). The same pre, post, and delayed tests were applied to both groups. The control group was taught according to the standard unit plan suggested by the Ministry of Education, while the experimental group was taught the same content with activities including, feedback loops, stock and flow diagrams, behavior over time graphs, and computer modeling. It was found that after one month of systems based environmental instruction, the experimental group performed better on systems thinking skills and dynamic environmental scenarios (DES) tests at .05 significance level. Besides, the effects of the system based intervention were more enduring on performance on DES test for the experimental group, when delayed tests were taken into account. No significance difference was found on science achievement level between the two groups. In addition to quantitative results, interviews resulted in higher levels of feedback thinking skills of the selected respondents from the experimental group.
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    Dynamic simulation model for long term comprehensive environmental analysis of GAP
    (Thesis (Ph.D.)- Bogazici University. Institute of Environmental Sciences, 1999., 1999.) Saysel, Ali Kerem.; Yenigün, Orhan.; Barlas, Yaman.
    Integrated development projects based on water resources development, aiming hydropower production and agricultural modernization have many potential impacts on social and natural environments. Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP), located in Southeast Turkey, comprising 10% of Turkish lands, targeting irrigation schemes on 1.7 million hectare fertile lowlands and 7400 MW hydropower production on Euphrates and Tigris would have many social and environmental consequences. In this study, potential environmental problems suggested by GAP, questions related with utilization of water resources, land degradation, agricultural pollution and land use are analyzed in systems perspective, focusing on the integrity of environmental, social and economic issues. With this aim, GAP S 1M, a dynamic simulation model is developed to trace long term trajectories of selected parameters, representing the relevant aspects of GAP's social, economic and natural environment. Based on a "systemic" problem definition, GAPSIM simulates the development rate of irrigation schemes, hydropower production with respect to changing irrigation releases, water availability on farmlands, crop selection and production, salinization, erosion, pesticide and fertilizer consumption, rangeland and forest quality, urbanization and population dynamics in GAP during 1990-2030 period, which comprises water facilities construction process. GAPSIM is validated, first "structurally", according to the validation tests suggested by the literature and then, model "behavior" is calibrated with respect to data available for the period 1990-1998. GAPSIM provides a dynamic simulation platform where several scenarios and policy analyses concerning GAP environment can be executed in order to arrive at an improved understanding of GAP as a socio-environmental system. Scenario and policy runs on GAPSIM reveal that, increased intensity of the most evapotranspirant crop cotton on GAP fields may cause significant water scarcity, which hinders the development rate of irrigation into new acres and inhibits crop yields by decreased water delivery to individual farms.
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    Groundwater appropriation game :|a dynamic simulation approach
    (Thesis (M.S.) - Bogazici University. Institute of Environmental Sciences, 2020., 2020.) Bal, Elif.; Saysel, Ali Kerem.
    This research explores the common pool resource (CPR) characteristics of groundwater resources by dynamic simulation modeling and computer gaming. As the largest source of freshwater in the world, groundwater is deemed one of the most valuable resources. Due to the difficulty of excluding potential users and high subtractability of the benefits consumed by one user from those available to others, groundwater resource is conceptualized as a CPR. As a CPR, groundwater is prone to both provision and appropriation problems including but not limited to drying up of wells, increased pumping costs and deterioration of water quality due to the intrusion of salt water. In this research, allocation of flow (the extracted groundwater) from the resource stock (extractable water at the aquifer bed) during a single irrigation season is investigated. When groundwater users act independently to increase their water extraction, the resulting drawdown of the water table may lead to an increase in energy costs and reduce overall, as well as individual benefits. This represents a CPR dilemma among the irrigators, where the actors have to cooperate for the quantity and coordinate for the timing of their irrigation activity to increase overall benefits. To facilitate learning in and about the dynamic complexity of this dilemma, a network based dynamic simulation game is developed. The game is grounded on a dynamic simulation model. The model represents the groundwater dynamics (i.e. groundwater flows within the aquifer and recharge mechanism) and dynamic relationship between water extraction and crop yield. The model also calculates biweekly and end of-the-season statistics for the individual farms on finances and water use efficiencies. Namely the Groundwater Irrigation Game is a multiplayer, dynamic game in which participants seek to maximize their farm profits while they are faced with the renewable resource limits. This game allows participants to explore consequences of different strategies and gain insights about the complex dynamics of the commons. Accordingly, the initial observations obtained from the pilot gaming indicate that the game instructions are sufficient for participants to develop a strategy and achieve their goals.
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    Improving tenth graders' understanding of global carbon cycle :|a systems learning approach
    (Thesis (M.S.)-Bogazici University. Institute of Environmental Sciences, 2019., 2019.) Atmaca, Ezgi.; Saysel, Ali Kerem.
    This study investigated whether studying the global carbon cycle through a systems learning approach helps 10th-grade students better understand the atmospheric carbon reduction strategies. Global carbon circulation with the principles of stock-flow networks was developed and used in order to improve the learning of global carbon dynamics. The research was a case study that enabled to compare the performance of students on carbon reduction potentials of different forestation practices in the long term, with a specifically designed Coal Substitution Test. The sample of the study includes twenty-five 10th-grade students (16-17-year-old). The study was conducted in biology class at a high school. All twenty-five students firstly completed their biology courses about the carbon cycle with their teachers according to the 10th grade biology curriculum approved given by the Ministry of Education. After completing their curriculum objectives, the students took Coal Substitution Test. Following this, they were given two hours system dynamics lesson about global carbon cycle. The following week they retook Coal Substitution Test. The responses to the tests before and after the intervention were statistically compared. It was found after the intervention, the group performed better according to t-test results and for each question at .002 and .001 significance levels. Cohen’s d effect size was found to be “large”. The results indicated students improved their understanding of particular aspects of the dynamics of the global carbon cycle.
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    Long-term impacts of variable renewable energy sources (VERS) on electricity generation in Turkey :|a systems modeling approach
    (Thesis (M.S.) - Bogazici University. Institute of Environmental Sciences, 2021., 2021.) Ulkat, Deniz.; Saysel, Ali Kerem.
    The power industry is switching worldwide from fossil-based technologies to renewables, fostered by government policies aiming for decarbonization and energy independency. Whereas variable renewable energy sources (VRES) bring some contributions, a large share of VRES in electric power industry has a considerable impact on supply security due to their intrinsic structure of seasonality and variability. In that context, this study aims to construct a System Dynamics (SD) model concentrating on the impacts of VRES on electricity generation mix in Turkey, focusing on system reserve margin, unit price of electricity and carbon emissions. The model consists of components representing capacity investment, demand formation, price formation, and future demand allocation. By integrating hourly data of available capacities into a simulation running in months, the model incorporates fast dynamics into the long-term model with slow variables. It adopts a high level of aggregation, classifying all the production capacity either as VRES or dispatchable. The main distinction between dispatchable and variable generation units is based on the technical characteristics of these power technologies. The capacity from dispatchable units could be increased or decreased by a system operator to satisfy demand by dispatching the generators to supply power according to their marginal costs while VRES capacity is directly related to such weather conditions as wind speed, water flow and cloud cover. Model is tested under two different electricity market mechanisms, one is Turkish spot market (day-ahead market), the other is bilateral contract-based mechanism. In scenario analysis on carbon tax, carbon dioxide emissions reduce but spot electricity prices increase at around variable costs of dispatchable units and investors tend to invest more on variable power plants. Without long-term contracts, carbon dioxide emissions decrease due to the decline in installed capacity of dispatchables. With this 2nd scenario more VRES units enter into the market to dispatch their energy due to their merit order effect. In the 3rd scenario, to select a weekend day as a typical day reveals that carbon emissions become lower because of less installed capacity in the market. Moreover, average spot prices are much higher which is primarily caused by the lower reserve margin in the electricity market.
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    Occupational safety dynamics in onshore LNG receiving terminals :|a systems modeling approach
    (Thesis (M.S.)-Bogazici University. Institute of Environmental Sciences, 2019., 2019.) Akar, Ezgi.; Saysel, Ali Kerem.
    In onshore LNG receiving terminals (LNGRTs), any unsafe condition and/or act that may cause fire and explosion during LNG processes may lead to major occupational accidents that may endanger people, equipment and the environment. Hence, to prevent accidents, determining factors that result in unsafe condition and/or act is crucial. LNGRTs are complex systems of interacting elements of managerial and employee decisions pertaining to occupational safety. Accordingly, in this study, based on system dynamics approach, a dynamic simulation model is developed to unravel the dynamic feedback structures that operate over time and can reveal unsafe conditions and/or acts, which signal probabilities of major occupational accidents. To gain insight into the system, besides literature review, fieldwork is done in a major onshore LNGRT. The model structure comprises the activities of LNG processing, equipment maintenance and repairing, employee training, where the management’s time allocation decision under specific resource constraints is the fundamental driver. The model simulates for 5 years and is validated first structurally then behaviorally. Subsequently, system behaviors are analyzed by applying several scenarios and policies on the model. Though these analyses, the model behaviors reveal that possibility of major occupational accidents increases by decrease in allocated labor time for maintenance that increases unsafe conditions and by decrease in allocated labor time for training that increases unsafe acts. The model can also be used as an experimental platform to test the influence of several factors on safety, such as; schedule pressure, incident learning, equipment reliability, turnover rate, overwork, and occupational experience of employee.
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    Political ecology of pollution control failure in Ergene basin of thrace, Turkey
    (Thesis (M.S.) - Bogazici University. Institute of Environmental Sciences, 2018., 2018.) Ocak, Semra.; Saysel, Ali Kerem.
    This thesis analyzes the pollution control failure in the Ergene Basin as a specific example of environmental conservation failure. Taking the political ecology literature as a starting point, the power and politics influencing the pollution control efforts and their failure are addressed. Rapid industrialization in Ergene has started in the 1980s to relocate industrial facilities from Istanbul to Thrace. Thus, industrial density areas were generated. The neglect on water pollution control has resulted in increasing pollution levels. However, there have been public response and professional efforts to control pollution. In response to the reactions against heavy pollution, various steps have been taken to prevent pollution, but they have been insufficient leading to pollution control failure. To understand the causes of this pollution control failure, we investigated pollution control efforts of the local professionals and the central authorities starting from the plan making process to the implementation phase. Through desktop research of environmental plans and reports, site visits to the pollution havens and in-depth interviews with experts, academics, NGOs representatives, it is observed that: The neglect of environmental problems in the context of neoliberal development, the reluctance of the state to ensure environmental conservation policies, devolution of power from local to central authorities have played a crucial role in pollution. Thus, these factors point towards an environmental governance problem arising from the lack of participation mechanisms which lead to shifting the cost of pollution from polluters to the public and the nature through integrated treatment plants and deep sea discharge projects.
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    Political ecology of small hydraulic power plant constructions in the province of Rize
    (Thesis (M.S.)-Bogazici University. Institute of Environmental Sciences, 2013., 2013.) Dönmez, Emre.; Saysel, Ali Kerem.
    Hundreds of small hydraulic power plants (SHPPs) in different regions of Turkey have been under construction. However, local people are opposing to these constructions in some regions, especially through judiciary means. The government aims to make legal amendments in order to change the legal basis enjoyed by the opposition until now. These events manifest that SHPPs refer to a case of politicized environment. Relying on a political ecologic perspective, the study defined the issue of SHPPs in Rize as an ecological distribution conflict between different social actors having distinct material interests. To test this hypothesis, this study investigated the state’s policy of SHPPs and the opposition against it, focusing on three valleys in Rize. The research helped to identify the related actors, their motives and strategies. Grassroots actors aimed to defend their livelihood interests that depend on the sustainability of stream ecosystems. Environmental non-governmental organizations supported the cause of grassroots actors from a moral and environmentalist position. The state was driven by a developmentalist and neo-liberal motivation to increase domestic electricity generation capacity by promoting business investments in SHPPs. Although the state is the pivotal actor in this conflict, each actor has its own strengths enabling it to exert power over its opponents.
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    Sustainability assessment of selected dairy farms using social multi criteria approach
    (Thesis (Ph.D.) - Bogazici University. Institute of Environmental Sciences, 2019., 2019.) Kabasakal Güzeloğlu, Leyla.; Saysel, Ali Kerem.; Özertan, Gökhan.
    Turkish dairy industry is being modernized and there are many successful examples. Big farms are supported while ecologic and social factors can often be overlooked. Objective of the research is to quantify sustainability at dairy farm level and compare farms with different management practices. The study examined current dairy production practices on farms assessing resource and energy uses as well as management and industry structure. Based on literature and stakeholders, a sustainability assessment framework was developed. Feed management, herd management, manure management and social organization are the main components in the framework and encompass environmental, social and economic dimensions. Dairy farms were selected by purposive sampling method. Dairy farms are categorized based on the processor they sell raw milk to; industrial milk processors, co-operatives and directly to consumers. Qualitative and quantitative data is collected from eighty farms via questionnaire. Based on the questionnaire; resource, energy, water and labor criteria were quantified using both qualitative and quantitative data. Sustainability assessment was conducted using Social Multi Criteria Evaluation methodology. A snapshot of the farms was taken and their performances based on farm management and milk production practices were compared from a sustainability standpoint. NAIADE is used for final comparison of the farms. Results indicate that small cooperative member farms are more sustainable. Using the same framework, larger studies with a larger sample size are encouraged to be conducted to see if general farm population reflects results of this study. Results of the assessment aim to start discussing sustainability at farm level.
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    Systems approach and modeling for sustainable groundwater irrigation: a case study in Mardin Kızıltepe plain
    (Thesis (M.S.) - Bogazici University. Institute of Environmental Sciences, 2018., 2018.) Mirhanoğlu, Adnan.; Saysel, Ali Kerem.
    The use of water for agriculture has become one of the most important environmental issues since water resources are depleting very fast. Groundwater irrigation, therefore, is mostly the only alternative to sustain agricultural activities in arid and semi-arid places. The hydrology of groundwater resources and the impact of human activities that cause groundwater exploitation are complex, and this complexity causes strategic management problems. This study examines the impact of different groundwater management options for the long-term sustainable agriculture in the Kızıltepe Plain located in south-east of Turkey where groundwater is used with insufficient coordination and regulation. There has been a tremendous increase in number of wells and amount of irrigated land in Kızıltepe Plain particularly in the past ten years. This increase ultimately causes irreversible damage to groundwater resources and also triggers ecological destruction, which may occur in the future. System dynamics provides us tools to explore the relationship between nature and humans in a holistic way. Therefore, in this research, a dynamic simulation model is developed to understand the groundwater problem in a holistic way and also to seek sustainable groundwater irrigation management in Kızıltepe Plain. The dynamic model consists of four sectors representing groundwater resources, water extraction, land use change and crop profitability. The model is validated first structurally with different extreme condition tests and parameter sensitivity tests. Then, behavioral validation is performed by available data between 2005 and 2015. It is argued that although overexploitation of groundwater beyond its replenishment rates may be profitable for the farmers in the short term, it may cause irreversible economic and ecological damage in the long term. Scenario analyses performed reveal that state incentives for irrigated land and increases in irrigated crop price may cause an enormous increase in irrigated land. This increase may lead to excessive use of groundwater which may result in significant water scarcity for future generations. However, changing irrigation type from flood irrigation to drip irrigation may reduce the use of groundwater and help to achieve long term sustainable groundwater use in Kızıltepe Plain.
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    The policy mobility of energy efficiency and green gentrification in the urban renewal of Istanbul
    (Thesis (M.S.) - Bogazici University. Institute of Environmental Sciences, 2018., 2018.) Yazar, Mahir.; Saysel, Ali Kerem.; Daloğlu Çetinkaya, İrem.
    The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), SDG number 11 specifically, has promoted urban sustainability and energy efficiency, as one of the highest potential for cities to tackle with the climate change mitigation globally. Using the concept of ‘green gentrification’ and ‘policy mobility’, this thesis will examine and further investigate the ongoing Gaziosmanpasa Urban Renewal Project in İstanbul. The GOP district is particularly interesting for this research because the district has adopted a ‘sustainable planning’ vision to create sustainable and energy efficient neighbourhoods alongside its on-going seismic-risk driven urban renewal. In Turkey, energy efficiency policy and practices started during the European Union accession process in early 2010s, and the local regime and businesses actors in Istanbul adapted and reinvented themselves surrounding the idea of ‘energy efficiency’ in the seismic-risk driven urban renewal in the city. Hence, the GOP district has also become an attractive venue for “green” businesses interested in energy certification schemes, such as LEED and BREAM, facilitated by the regulatory schemes known as the 2008 Energy Efficiency Law. Through qualitative data gathered from literature reviews and the data collected through interviews with energy efficiency businesses, municipality officers and social entrepreneurs in Istanbul, the case shows how sustainability planning with highenergy efficiency targets may lead to green gentrification.