Ph.D. Theses
Permanent URI for this collection
Browse
Browsing Ph.D. Theses by Subject "Balance of payments -- Turkey."
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
Results Per Page
Sort Options
Item Current account adjustment in Turkey : 1923-2002(Thesis (Ph.D.)-Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in Social Sciences, 2003., 2003.) Yücel, Yelda.; Pamuk, Şevket, 1950-.In this thesis the balance of payments of Turkey between 1923-2002 is examined with special emphasis on current account adjustment. One of the targets is to evaluate the balance of payments under different economic regimes since 1923 and to identify the changes in the structure of balance of payments. The review of the balance of payments and different development strategies highlights that there is a close relationship between economic growth and balance of payments in Turkey. The second task of this thesis is to identify the determinants of current account balance empirically. A reduced form single equation model of current account with annual and quarterly data is estimated through ordinary least squares (OLS). Next, formal statistical methods are applied to detect possible breaks and shifts in the model. Whether there exists a threshold between the current account balance and economic growth is also questioned. Finally, stability of the model parameters is examined through rolling-regressions analysis. Consequently, current account balance in Turkey has been found to be determined by GDP growth, demand from export markets, terms of trade and foreign exchange volatility, among which GDP growth is the major factor. Formal tests for structural break and test for threshold effects did not provide significant results but analysis of rolling regressions had important results for the current account dynamics in Turkey, which verified that there are shifts and breaks in the current account model. The impact of GDP growth on current account balance declined during 1995-2002 and specifically in 1999. Given the unsustainability of economic growth in this period, the economy could not generate proportionate expenditures during phases of economic growth.Item Turkey's transfer problem in the 1980s :|the external and the internal adjustment mechanisms(Thesis (Ph.D.) - Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in Social Sciences, 1994., 1994.) İzmen, Ümit 1961-; Evcimen, Günar.This thesis attempts an empirical interpretation of the Turkish transfer problem during the 1980's, the main cause of which is the debt selVice obligations. The thesis investigates how Turkey attempted to solve the twin problems of the external and internal transfers in the 1980s. In particular, this study formulates the salient features of the transfer process and investigates the extent to which policies in this process met the requirements of the textbook transfer theory. Using a simple macroeconomic framework, the thesis also attempts to relate the transfer problem to the growth-oriented adjustment literature. Mter the introduction, the second chapter introduces the transfer debate in literature. The third chapter gives an ovelView of the adjustment process and sets the methodological framework for measuring transfers. The fourth chapter probes further into the external transfer problem. The fifth chapter takes up the internal transfer problem. The sixth chapter develops a simple macro-economic model inspired by the growth-oriented literature of the IMF and the World Bank and uses this model to simulate the effects of a transfer requirement and alternative ways of financing the transfer on output growth and price stability. The last chapter summarizes the main findings.