Ph.D. Theses
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Browsing Ph.D. Theses by Subject "Earthquakes -- Turkey -- Marmara Region."
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Item Interseismic behavior along the North Anatolian fault in the Marmara region using 3D structure(Thesis (Ph.D.)-Bogazici University. Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, 2022., 2022) Yılmaz, Zeynep.; Konca, Ali Özgün.A series of earthquakes occurred along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) during the 20th century, primarily migrating from east to west. The only part of the NAF that has not broken is under the Marmara Sea. The Main Marmara Fault (MMF), the NAF’s northern branch, is the most active one, with the highest slip rate amongst the several branches of the NAF. Since the seismic gap of ~150 km is beneath the sea, the geodetic data is not sufficient to constrain the full fault coupling, particularly in the Central Marmara. Nevertheless, the current data does imply that the GNSS vectors along the northern coast of the Marmara Sea are smaller than expected. One interpretation is that the MMF has heterogeneous interseismic coupling with creeping and locked segments. Another explanation is that the fault is locked, but the strain is asymmetrically localized around the MMF as a result of the deep basins. In this study, the competing effects of weak interseismic locking of the MMF and deep basins around the fault are studied by developing a 3-D finite element model for the Marmara Region, which includes a realistic topography, the 3-D geometry of the main fault, and basins, and using the geodetic data as a constraint. Our findings show that the deep basins confine the interseismic strain in the fault vicinity, and using a homogeneous half-space model leads to a slight underestimation of the locking depth. Our 3-D model shows that while the basins have some effects on strain localization, the heterogeneity of interseismic coupling is necessary to explain the observed GNSS data. We infer a change in the locking depth at the Ganos Bend between the strongly coupled Ganos and the weakly coupled Western Marmara. Seismic studies also indicate that these two segments vary considerably in background seismicity. The 50 km creeping segment coincides well with repeating earthquakes and higher rates of diffuse seismicity. Variations in regional stresses and earthquake focal mechanisms, including the 2019 Silivri earthquake sequence, are compatible with the dilatational quadrants in the region due to the loading caused by the interseismic creep of the Western Marmara.Item Investigating crustal structure of the Marmara region using local tomography and seismic anisotropy anisotropy methods(Thesis (Ph.D.)-Bogazici University. Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, 2019., 2019.) Polat, Gülten.; Karabulut, Hayrullah.; Özel, Nurcan Meral.The crustal structure underneath the Marmara region was investigated by uti lizing local tomography and shear wave splitting methods in this study. These regions have high seismicity and are thus of serious importance to seismic risks. The first part of the research was based on travel-time tomography utilizing local moderate and microseismic events occurring in the study area recorded by the Multi-Disciplinary Earthquake Research in High-Risk Regions of Turkey project and Kandilli Observa tory and Earthquake Research Institute. We had chosen 2,131 seismic events and 92,858 arrival times in total, comprising of 50,044 P-wave and 42,814 S-wave arrival times. The mapped earthquakes were gathered in the segments of the fault that has high seismicity. Low velocities were observed beneath the central Marmara Sea at 5 km depth. Also, the 2006 Mb =5.3 Manyas-Kus Golu (Manyas) earthquake had been ret rospectively “stress-forecasted” utilizing changes in time-delays of seismic shear wave splitting to evaluate the time and magnitude at which tension-modified microcracking reaches fracture criticality within the stressed volume where strain is released. We observed that clear decreases in delay-times before the impending event, especially at the station GEMT are consistent with the anisotropic poroelasticity (APE) model of fluid-rock deformation, but we could not observe similar changes at other stations sur rounding the main event. The logarithms of the duration of the tension accumulation are proportional (self-similar) to the magnitude of the impending event. Although time and magnitude of the 2005 Manyas earthquake could have been stress-forecasted, as has been recognized elsewhere, shear wave splitting does not appear to provide direct information about the location of impending earthquakes.Item Source properties of micro - earthquakes in eastern Marmara and their connection to the structure of the Çınarcık basın(Thesis (Ph.D.)-Bogazici University. Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, 2019., 2019.) Can, Birsen.; Aktar, Mustafa.This study mainly focuses on the source properties of micro-earthquakes in Eastern Marmara and their connection to the structure of the Çınarcık Basin, in particular. Throughout this study, Prince Islands Real Time Earthquake Monitoring System (PIRES) Arrays data have been used, which is the closest land site locations to the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in the Marmara Sea. Only a limited number of small magnitude earthquakes occur in the Çınarcık Basin. Therefore, earthquakes only within an epicentral distance of ~20 km to the arrays have been evaluated considering that Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) decreases abruptly for further distances. Special methods have been developed and adapted to the PIRES in this study. In this context, advantages of the arrays have been used in all aspects. Array based cross correlation method has been developed for the optimal detection of the small magnitude events which show similarity. Using this method, a systematical search of the foreshocks and aftershocks activities has been performed. This has led to a large improvement of the detection level and revealed large number of earthquake clustering. It became possible to extract many small magnitude events that are buried in the background noise or in the coda of previous events and therefore were missed by the land stations. Since, the main target was to evaluate the performance of the surface arrays against the boreholes, various noise cancelation tools are developed based on the stacking of repetitive observations. These procedures are used for the estimations of the fracture properties of the small events inside the Çınarcık Basin. The fracture properties that have been analyzed are the seismic moment, fracture radius, stress drop, energy and occurrence statistics. Tests are performed to see if the fracture properties are changing in space and time, or show any other characteristic behavior that may be connected to a particular location in the study area. Variations are observed between the stress drop and location of the events. Similarly, foreshock and aftershock occurrence statistics seems also to vary across the Çınarcık Basin. Since, the present data is rather restricted, it is expected that the interpretations are only preliminary. The results obtained imply that this type of analysis will probably be part of the real time monitoring processes in the future, for the purpose of early warning systems.