Predicting countries' vulnerability to climate change

Abstract

Many countries are subject to the consequences of global climate change at varying degrees, and their vulnerability varies according to socioeconomic and environmental factors. Individuals, societies, and countries must be aware of the effects of climate change. Knowledge and understanding of how exposed they are to hazards, their level of vulnerability, and what must be done are critical for the continuation of basic vital activities. Accurately predicting how much a country will be affected by climate change in the future or which life- supporting sectors will suffer is crucial for countries to take precautions. Therefore, in this study, The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) Country Index’s data is used for predicting countries’ vulnerability to climate change. It’s an open-source index that displays how vulnerable a nation is to climate disruptions. The data for this index includes scores for vulnerability and six areas that support life, including food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure, for 182 nations during a 26-year period from 1995 to 2020. Long short-term memory (LSTM) network-based model is built to predict seven countries’ six years of data from 2021 to 2026. These countries are Turkey, Australia, Germany, Portugal, Sudan, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan. The results showed that the model predicts an increase in the vulnerability scores of all countries except Sudan for 2021, a slight decrease in Germany and Australia, and a decrease in Turkey, Portugal, and Kyrgyzstan after 2021. The model predicts a decrease in Sudan and an increase in Georgia for all years. The model’s successes are tested using data from 2010 to 2020. Although time series forecasting is challenging, forecasted values are close to actual values. This study is novel since no other studies have predicted countries’ future years’ vulnerability to climate change.