İstanbul channel transport risk assessment via simulation

Abstract

A considerable amount of traffic exists in the Istanbul Channel, since it is a waterway connecting the Black Sea to the Aegean Sea through the sea of Marmara and one of the most important and crucial routes for international navigation. Ships are prone to accidents in this channel on account of several suspected factors such as heavy transit traffic, the physical characteristics(strong surface current, narrowness and sharp turns) of the channel and cross traffic density. The combined effects of these factors with the adverse weather conditions increase the likelihood of accidents at and in the vicinity of the Channel.The goal of this study is to investigate the risks associated with potential naval accidents through statistical regression and simulation techniques. In this context, first an extensive data collection effort has been spent. Then three regional regression models have been developed to assess the relationship between the naval accidents (in the Channel) and suspected accidents causing factors and conditions (such as strong currents and winds, local traffic, channel width and bends, visibility). Finally, a computerized simulation model of the Channel is developed by using one of the object-oriented programming languages VSE(Visual Simulation Environment) to evaluate the impact of different scenarios. The study is concluded by giving the summary and making suggestions for future study.