The impact of theSyrian refugee influx on Turkish capital movement
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Date
2020.
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Thesis (M.A.) - Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in the Social Sciences, 2020.
Abstract
This research aims to understand the impactof Syrian migration influx on the capital flowinTurkey through theTurkish banking indicators.Specifically,wetryto estimate thechangeinmonetarystocksinsavingdepositaccountsandtheusageof variousloansandcreditsbetween2013and2018.Forthatreason,weuseacanonical difference-in-differenceestimationstrategywiththeinstrumentalvariableapproach, relaxing commontrendassumptionofthissetting.ThisstudysuggeststhatSyrian refugees affectcapitalflowpositivelyintermsofaccumulationandcreditusage.Our findings proposethatSyrianrefugeeshaveapositiveimpactontheusageofaggregate personal loansthrough,mostly,consumercredits,andonthecommercialcreditsin the textileandtheconstructionsectorsinnon-cashandcashcredits,respectively.This findings mayimplyunconventionalfinancingcurrentinvestments,mostly,inthe informal sector,sectoralshiftsintheconstructionsector,andincreaseinexportlevel of thetextilesector.Additionally,wecanobservepositiveeffectsontheforeign currencies inthesavingdepositaccountswhileestimatingadecreaseinnative currencysavings.Ourresultsareconsistentwiththecurrentmigrationliteratureand showlocalvarietiesofconsumerreactionsincreditmarketandcapitalflowinthe host country.