Technologically detailed modeling and analysis of industrial energy use and CO2 emissions in Turkey within the framework of a MARKAL based bottom-up national energy model

Abstract

This study examines the long term supply demand planning and balancing of the national energy system and related CO2 emissions with special emphasis on the industrial sector. The MARKAL modeling framework is deployed where all technological, emission related and cost parameters of available energy sources, conversion, transmission and consumption technology alternatives, as well as nal energy demands are externally estimated for each time period and fed into the model as parameters. Within this context, special attention is paid to industrial sector in that most energy consuming nine subsectors (namely manufacture of chemicals, cement, glass, iron & steel, non-ferrous metals, pulp & paper, motor vehicles, food & beverage and textiles) are individually represented with their cost, technology and emission related parameters compiled based on data painstakingly obtained from many expats and industrial enterprises. Using the model, a reference scenario is de ned and optimized in cost. Then, other scenarios directly constraining the CO2 emissions or applying tax per ton of emitted CO2 are set and analyzed in terms of total costs and e ectiveness in emission reduction. The scenarios also involve variation of levels with regard to nuclear capacity and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. Results obtained are discussed.