Climate change projections of Cyprus using RegCM4.4

Abstract

The scientific motivation of this thesis is a substantial presence of climate change which is one of the most significant issues in the world. There have been happening many natural disasters because of climate change. In particularly, coastal regions and islands, such as Cyprus, are more vulnerable to any possible hazards. Humankind start to contribute the climate change, especially, after industrial revolution. Burning fossil fuels causes the increase of CO2 emission to the atmosphere. In fact, at the beginning of the 18th century, before the Industrial Revolution, CO2 concentration in the atmosphere was 280 ppm; however, today, this value is 410 ppm. The unprecedented CO2 increase in the atmosphere since Industrial Revolution gives rise to global climate change. The Mediterranean region is predicted to be affected by climate changes in terms of air temperature rise. In this study, air temperature (◦C) and precipitation (mm/day) estimations of Cyprus were investigated with the regional climate model. The climatology model is run for the three periods of 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100, with respect to the control period of 1971–2005 for Cyprus domain via regional climate model simulations. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4) of ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was run by using two different global climate models. MPI- ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and HadGEM2 of the Met Office Hadley Center were dynamically downscaled to 10 km resolution by using double nesting. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the emission scenarios, of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change) were used for projections.