M.A. Theses

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A comparative study of bubble components
(Thesis (M.A.) - Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in the Social Sciences, 2015., 2015.) Akyüz, Alp Güven Buğra.; Hatipoğlu Ali Ozan.
The co-movement of prices across the world was highlighted during the Credit Crunch of 2008 and the following periods. Since the price drop is attributed to bursting bubbles, it is of interest whether bubbles also follow a diffusion process across countries. This thesis, calculates the bubble percentages using the Kalman Filter approach and runs Granger causality test in order to determine how bubbles spill over across countries. The results suggest that bubbles indeed spill over and the diffusion process is determined by the development level and economic ties of countries rather than geographical proximity. Moreover, bubbles spill over to emerging markets from developed ones and not the other way around. Whereas, the bubbles spill over across developed economies in a bilateral fashion. iv
A comparative study of the growth of the public sector in the EEC countries
(Thesis (M.A.)-Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in Social Sciences, 1985., 1985.) Tözüm, S. N. Zeynep.; Önder, İzzettin,
A comparison of stochastic models of natural gas consumption: an application for Turkey
(Thesis (M.A.) - Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in the Social Sciences, 2014., 2014.) Kiremitçiyan, Serli.; Kuzubaş, Tolga Umut.
In this thesis, we model the dynamic behaviour of natural gas consumption using continuous-time stochastic models to incorporate their significant advantages over the discrete-time models into the modeling process. In addition to offering a wide set of choices for the drift and volatility terms and yielding analytical solutions for any forecast horizon, continuous-time models can also be used in the pricing of contingent claims depending on natural gas consumption since they enable more reliable forecasts at high-frequency levels. Here, we also document that the per consumer natural gas consumption data exhibit stationarity, strong seasonality, mean reversion, and serial correlation. Hence, we study the application of a One-factor mean-reverting process and stochastic Gompertz diffusion model on the modeling of daily natural gas consumption in Istanbul, Turkey that will also incorporate the empirical observations. In the comparison of their forecasting performances which are tested via the backtesting method at different forecast horizons, we find out that the One-factor mean-reverting process is more advantageous than the Gompertz diffusion process. To illustrate the pricing implications of these models, we price two hypothetical contracts and find out that the results vary from one model to another and hence, the choice of model becomes crucial in the real world.
A dynamic investment model under time-inconsistency
(Thesis (M.A.) - Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in Social Sciences, 2012., 2012.) Karaçay, Bernes.; Yılmaz, Murat.
In this study, we analyze a three period dynamic investment model where a principal interacts with an agent who is time-inconsistent. We use preferences to capture time-inconsistency as it is widely used in the literature. Every period, the agent invests an amount and then the principal, observing the investment amount, makes an offer or not, and then the agent accepts the offer or not. For any and combination, we find the optimal investment streams for both sophisticated and naive type of time-inconsistent agent. For a sophisticated type of agent, for s above a threshold, we find that for intermediate values of , as the degree of time-inconsistency increases, the game ends in the second period rather than the first period, and for relatively high values of , as the degree of time-inconsistency increases, the game ends in the second period rather than the third period. When the agent is naive, however, for a range of values, below a certain value, the agent after realizing that he is time-inconsistent changes his mind about his investment decision and ends the game in the second period, even though he made an investment in the first period with which he intended to end the game in the third period. We also find that for all and values naive agent erroneously makes an overall investment that is at least as big as that of the sophisticated agent. Also, for the principal, it is better that the agent is naive rather than sophisticated for all and values.
A dynamic model of mixed duopolistic competition: open source vs. proprietary innovation
(Thesis (M.A.) - Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in the Social Sciences, 2015., 2015.) Akbulut, Suat.; Yılmaz, Murat.
Open source software development has been an interesting investment model of production and innovation in recent years, especially in the last few decades. Unlike the private investment model, open source innovators freely share the software that they have developed at their private expense. Also, open source development is usually subject to certain licenses, one of which being the General Public License (GPL), the most popular open source license. In this thesis, we study the competition dynamics between a proprietary firm and an open source firm, Windows and Linux, for instance. We model the the competition between such two firms by incorporating the nature of the GPL, investment opportunities by the proprietary firm, user developers who can invest in the open source development, and a ladder type technology. We use a two period dynamic mixed duopoly model, in which a profitmaximizing proprietary firm competes with a rival, the open source firm, which prices the product at zero, with the quality levels determining their relative positions over time. We ask the following questions. How does the existence of open source firm affect the investment and the pricing behavior of the proprietary firm? Does the social welfare increase with the existence of the open source development? How are the users/consumers affected from the open source firm being available? We also discuss the limitations of our model and possible extensions.
A horse race among models of strategic thinking across similar games
(Thesis (M.A.) - Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in the Social Sciences, 2015., 2015.) Emirahmetoğlu, İbrahim.; Gürdal, Mehmet Yiğit.
Human behavior generally deviates from equilibrium in one-shot games. For this reason, a number of strategic thinking models which relax one or more assumptions of equilibrium have emerged. A natural extension to the emergence of these models is to compare their predictive and explanatory powers. In this study we have made a full-fledged comparison of eight prominent models (QRE, Lk, CH, NI, SLk, SCH, GCH and Lm) through a new game and its variations. We have analysed their performances in two ways. First, we out-of-sample predicted experimental results by these models and compared them by calculating the mean of squared distances between predictions and the observed data. Secondly we estimated the models for all games together and compared their log-likelihood values to determine their performance in explaining subjects’ behaviors. We found that models with payoff dependent noise had consistently better predictive performances than those without noisy behavior. Our main contribution is to show that a little modification on game structure might lead to drastically different results in the predictive performances and statistical fits of the models. Even across very similar games, there were significant changes on the performances of the models.
A look at indirect tax system in Turkey based on demand system estimation
(Thesis (M.A.)-Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in the Social Sciences, 2008., 2008.) Soydan, Gürcan.; Erus, Burçay.
Taxation systems are not established only to raise the necessary revenue for the government budget. A redistributive function is also generally attributed to those systems to alleviate income inequality problems. A properly designed and efficiently exercised direct taxation system can help to solve an important part of inequality by directly taxing individuals and corporates according to their earnings. However, developing countries, including Turkey, for several reasons, usually rely on indirect taxes rather than direct income taxes for the collection of the government revenue. The purpose of this study is to analyse the indirect taxation system in Turkey on distributional grounds. Marginal Tax Reform Analysis is applied for the indirect tax system in effect in 2003. 2003 Household Budget Survey of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) is used in exploring the consumption pattern of the households in Turkey and obtaining the necessary price elasticities. The indirect taxes in 2003 are found not to be optimal. At different levels of inequality aversion for the government, the same amount of revenue can be raised by adjusting the indirect tax rates.
A Network analysis of Turkish financial crisis of 2000
(Thesis (M.A.)-Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in Social Sciences, 2010., 2010.) Yenilmez, Taylan Eren.; Saltoğlu, Burak.
This thesis is an attempt to explain Turkish financial crisis of 2000 in the light of network theory. Our contribution is applying network theory to a very special data that spans pre-crisis and crisis periods. Analyzing time series behavior of network parameters during such a special period is can bring new perspectives for applications of network theory to financial systems. Turkish overnight money market is considered as a real world network and daily networks of the year 2000 were constructed with the help of market microstructure data. Results showed that during the year network was highly centralized due to the huge borrowing of Demirbank. Centralization around Demirbank changed the structure and broke ties between other institutions which decreased connectivity. November crisis demolished highly central structure around Demirbank and connectivity increased during the crisis. Network illustrations and time series behavior of connectivity, connectivity-volume correlation, backbone volume ratio, Google Pagerank value for the central node all show the centralization around Demirbank before crisis and the collapse of this structure during the crisis. These parameters can be watched to catch this kind of centralization and to prevent turbulences related to the central node.
A neuroeconomic analysis of intertemporal decision-making: EEG source localization
(Thesis (M.A.) - Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in the Social Sciences, 2018., 2018.) Başaşçı, Mustafa Sami.; Gürdal, Mehmet Yiğit.
Using EEG, we studied the neural correlates of intertemporal decision making when subjects made binary choices between smaller/earlier and larger/later money amounts for 40 trials. We analyzed EEG data by using preprocessing and source localization. Then, we used multiple logit models with neural data or behavioral data to explain participants’ responses. In behavioral analysis, we got expected results which is consistent with economic literature and previous studies. When early (late) reward increases, people are more likely to choose early (late) reward. Also, we found that when if early option is today, people are more likely to choose early option. In neural analysis, we observed that there exist two separate systems like McClure et al. (2004) fMRI study. In addition to some regions (lateral prefrontal cortex, posterior parietal cortex, primary visual and motor cortices) which McClure et al. (2004) identiﬁed in their study, we found that activations (or deactivations) of superior temporal gyrus, supramarginal gyrus, anterior prefrontal cortex, orbitofrontal cortex, fusiform gyrus, angular gyrus, and middle temporal gyrus are signiﬁcantly correlated with the responses for at least one epoch of the pre-decision period.
A new approach to the third generation currency crisis models :|an application for Turkey
(Thesis (M.A.) - Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in Social Sciences, 2022., 2022.) Bayrak, Tufan.; Kuzubaş, Tolga Umut.
Since the 1980s, three currency crisis models have emerged to explain the formation of currency crises and define the appropriate policies. The purpose of this study is to summarize the first and second generation crisis models and then expand the third generation crisis models by proposing an original model incorporating export, imported intermediate goods, and risk premium variables to the model of Philippe Aghion, Philippe Bacchetta and Abhijit Banerjee (2001), which is one of the most critical studies in the literature. In this context, the model allows for the effects of changes in exchange rates on exports, importation of intermediate goods, short-term external debt, and the risk premium. The obtained results imply that a decrease in interest rate would be optimal in the case of high level and/or elasticity of exports. However, an economy with a high level of intermediate goods importation and/or foreign debt should implement a higher interest rate policy. An empirical analysis conducted by using the related data of the Turkish economy to test the effectiveness of the model and the recommended policies. The regression results show that the created model is not very suitable for the data of Turkey between 1994-2019.
A performance analysis of commercial banks in Turkey
(Thesis (M.A.) - Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in the Social Sciences, 2018., 2018.) Şenses, Hazal.; Özertan, Gökhan.; Emel, Ahme Burak.
In this study, I analyze the performance of the commercial banks in Turkey using the CAMEL approach and investigate the relationship between loan growth and soundness indicators such as asset quality, proﬁtability and capital ratios of the banks by using econometric methods. I describe and document efﬁciency measures for the banking sector and ﬁnd a more negative position in recent years. I observe an increasing behavior in loans to deposits ratio and explain the relation between the rising trend of the ratio and the efﬁciency measures. My ﬁndings are robust and signiﬁcant which suggest that there is a relation between loan growth and efﬁciency of the sector.
A study on the economic crisis of 1970's and proposals: |an eclectic analysis
(Thesis (M.A.) - Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in Social Sciences, 1985., 1985.) Koçak, Cüneyd.
A study on the skill premium and informality
(Thesis (M.A.) - Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in the Social Sciences, 2019., 2019.) Sakarya Barlas, Gaye.; Elgin, Ceyhun.
Skill premium as defined by the ratio of the skilled labor wage to the unskilled labor wage is said to be explained by the relative labor ratio and the equipment-skill ratio. In this paper, the relation between the skill premium and the size of the informal sector is observed and a positive relation has been found, based on the regression results. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is also set up in order to observe the relation between these variables. According to the model results, a higher skill premium occurs when the size of the informal sector is lower. Although it seems contradictory to the regression results, it is believed to be associated with the higher level of output produced in the low informal sector case. The effect of the informal sector size on the way skill premium is affected by productivity shocks is observed and it has been found that a greater size of informal sector causes skill premium to be affected more from the neutral productivity shocks. On the other hand, a lower level of informal sector causes skill premium to be affected more from the investment specific productivity shocks.
A study on the Turkish insurance sector :|with a special emphasis on recent deregulations and its protracted impact on the growth of the Turkish economy
(Thesis (M.A.) - Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in Social Sciences, 1991., 1991.) Çöğendez, M. Tunç.; Gönensay, Emre.
In this thesis, the role of the insurance sector in the financial system in Turkey and the changing aspect of the sector through the new deregulations have been investigated. Financial analysis of the sector and comparison with world standards is part of the study. Main characteristics and problems associated with the sector backed up by relevant historical data are surfaced. Analysis of new foreign and local entrants to the sector as a consequence of recent deregulations is also included in the study. The research is exploratory in nature and extensive preliminary work has been done on the subject.
A system dynamic macroeconomic model for an inquiry of income inequality and environmental impact
(Thesis (M.A.) - Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in the Social Sciences, 2019., 2019.) Dilek, Gökhan.; Adaman, Fikret.
Ending hunger, reducing poverty and inequalities, and climate action are the main ob jectives of the political agenda in the recent years. However, these objectives may be in conﬂict. Economic growth is promoted to end hunger and reduce poverty; however, a growing economy may well increase human impact on the environment. It is also true that an income redistribution scheme may increase aggregate demand—hence, the economic activity and subsequently the environmental impact. In this thesis, we build a system dynamic macroeconomic model to cope with the intricate relationships among income distribution, economic growth, and human impact on the environment. The model is based on macroeconomic accounting principles, and represents a closed economy with a representative ﬁrm, three heterogeneous households, and a simple banking sector. We argue that anaggressive income redistribution scheme canachieve the whole objectives in the policy agenda, while a mild redistribution scheme may worsen the environmental problems. This thesis contributes to the recent Ecological Macroeconomicsliteraturebyexaminingtherelationshipbetweenincomedistribution and environmental impact of the human activity by relying on a system dynamics ap proach.
A theoretical and empirical analysis of shopping mall formation in Istanbul, Turkey
(Thesis (M.A.) - Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in Social Sciences, 2012., 2012.) Odabaş, Meltem.; Adaman, Fikret.
This study aims to analyze the reasons behind the excessive development of shopping mall in Turkey by focusing on the Istanbul case. In order to clarify the economic reasoning behind the emergence of this new type of retail place in an urban city which is already full of traditional retail places–bazaars, arcades, etc.–, the study proceeds in two main branches: first, in the theoretical part, the economic literature is reviewed in order to demonstrate the distinction between clustering in a shopping mall from other retail places. Next, in the empirical part, the shopping mall development in Istanbul is examined in order to link the theoretical results to what is observed in reality. Supported with focus group studies and in-depth interviews, the general argument is that shopping malls provide firms and consumers with services that are not available in other retail places—an argument leads us to make the claim that malls should be seen as “clubs”. On consumers’ side, they provide parking and security services and extra entertainment activities within a clean and orderly environment in order to attract them. Considering firms, on the other hand, the mall developers help them to overcome some obstacles –such as large-sum financial credit and receiving construction approvals from the urban planning authorities. In that regard, the study argues, entrepreneurs use their advantage on power and network relations, which necessitates their existence as the service facilitator in the mall. This necessity gains further importance in the Istanbul case, due to the lack of commercialized plots in the areas that are close to central business districts.
A VAR frame work in analyzing the effects of anticipated and unanticipated monetary shocks on macro aggregates : the case of Turkey
(Thesis (M.A.) - Bogazici University. Institute of Social Sciences, 1999., 1999.) Karapaşaoğlu, Fatma E.; Alper, Emre.
This study examines the effects of anticipated and unanticipated monetary policy on macro variables for Turkey, over the period of 1987-1998, using a vector autoregression framework following Cochrane (1998). Monetary policy is analyzed by means of two different shocks; one is the shock on money supply and the other is the shock on the interest rate. Expansionary monetary policy is found to affect output positively but not significantly in all estimations. On the other hand, contractionary monetary policy, measured by a positive interest rate shock, reduces output significantly in all estimations. Although the effect of monetary policy on output is significant, it can only explain a tiny fraction of the changes in real output. Estimation results indicate that there exists 'price puzzle' in Turkey, i.e., prices respond negatively to expansionary monetary policy and positively to contractionary monetary policy. The response of the exchange rate to monetary policy is found to be in the same direction as that of the price index in all estimations. Finally, if we assume that not only unanticipated monetary· policy but both anticipated and unanticipated monetary policies have some effects on macro variables, responses of those variables to monetary shocks die out within a shorter time period.|Keywords: Vector autoregression, monetary transmission mechanisms, anticipatedunanticipated shocks
A welfare comparison of life-cycle investment strategies for Turkey
(Thesis (M.A.) - Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in the Social Sciences, 2019., 2019.) Khodzhimatov, Ravshanbek.; Kuzubaş, Tolga Umut.
We perform an in-depth welfare comparison of the most common life-cycle investment strategies provided by retirement funds or suggested by classical portfolio theory in the case of households in Turkey. To perform our benchmarking, we construct heterogeneous agents who work and invest throughout their lifetime, using parameters calibrated from the historical data. We ﬁnd that to households with upper-to-middle income, individually customized portfolios result in considerable welfare gains, while “off-the-shelf” life-cycle portfolio allocations perform better for households with lower income. We also show that life-cycle investment options outperform “ﬁxed over the lifetime” options. Finally, we ﬁnd that risk-averse individuals with volatile wages, can maximize their welfare by investing in housing as suggested by Munk (2016).
Achieving growth through social innovation: a beyond GDP trial. Case studies of Turkey and Russia
(Thesis (M.A.) - Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in the Social Sciences, 2015., 2015.) Chiklyaukova, Ekaterina.; Helvacıoğlu, Aslı Deniz.
Beyond GDP approach emphasizes that GDP alone is not comprehensive enough to capture the factors that contribute to the growth in the society. For several years, academicians try to identify the perfect indicator, which describes state of our well-being in the best way. The thesis’ novelty is in its aim of identification of the conceptual relationship between Beyond GDP and social innovation by analyzing the ecosystem of social innovation. There are three major aims defined. The first one is to identify the potential of “beyond GDP” on social innovation. The second one is to propose a novel approach to defining social innovation ecosystem in the light of Social Progress Index, Global Innovation Index and the Legatum Prosperity Index. Volunteering was added to the ecosystem as a unique enabler of social innovation. The development of optimal social innovation ecosystem is to be followed by the specific ones for Turkey and Russia, based on the analysis of respective index indicators scores. The third one is to conduct a case study of social innovation initiatives in Turkey and Russia. Two examples of local foundations that operate with a help of volunteers were examined. At the end of the thesis, policy making recommendations based on the best practices are provided.
Actual and revealed comparative advantage in OECD agriculture : (1986-2002)
(Thesis (M.A.)-Bogazici University. Institute for Graduate Studies in Social Sciences, 2004., 2004.) Uz, Can.; Evcimen, Günar.
This thesis explains the variation in the revealed comparative advantage of OECD agriculture between 1986 and 2002, using panel data techniques. Specifically, it empirically assesses, on the one hand, the degree of consistence or correspondence between revealed and actual comparative advantage of agricultural sector in reference countries, and the relative importance of actual comparative advantage and government intervention as determinants of revealed comparative advantage of agriculture on the other. The results showed that actual comparative advantage is positively and significantly related to agriculture's revealed comparative advantage, indicating that Hillman's correspondence between the RCA index and the relative factor endowments in cross-country comparisons of comparative advantage obtains even in a world with distortions. Furthermore, agricultural protection and agriculture's share in economy appear to have the most important influences on the RCA index.|Keywords: Revealed comparative advantage, comparative advantage, producer support estimate, nominal assistance coefficient, pooled ordinary least squares.

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